NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence reached its lowest point since April 2014 in September, marking a continuation of a three-month decline in household optimism. The Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.7 points, settling at 81.9. August’s figure was revised downward to 88.6. The survey, conducted from September 1 to September 23, revealed that both the current situation and expectations for the upcoming six months deteriorated during this period.
The Present Situation Index declined 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating more pessimism regarding business and labor conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive month of decline. This index reflects consumer outlooks on income, employment, and business prospects over the next six months. The drops in July and August preceded September’s decline, together dragging the overall confidence measure further below the levels seen earlier this year.
The Conference Board survey highlighted a notable shift in consumer perceptions of the current business environment. Approximately 18.5% of consumers described conditions as good, down slightly from 18.8% in August. Conversely, those rating conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Views on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% stating jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%, and 21.9% claiming jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations increase amid sustained fuel prices
In September, consumers reported higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month forecast for inflation climbed by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median estimate rose to 5.1%. Federal data indicated that consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from the previous year. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, gasoline prices increased by 3.9% in August. AAA reported a national average of about $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Spending plans for various categories showed signs of tightening. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase vehicles and homes both slightly decreased in September. Expected expenditure on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also declined. However, vacation plans remained relatively firm, with 42.6% of consumers planning trips within six months. This percentage rose by 0.5 points from August, primarily driven by increased domestic travel plans.
Outlook on employment and income dims
Expectations regarding business conditions, employment opportunities, and income levels also weakened. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August, while those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. The share of respondents expecting more available jobs decreased to 14.0%, and those expecting fewer jobs increased to 28.4%. Income outlooks softened as well, with 17.9% foreseeing gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the next six months.
The survey further indicated growing financial pressures on households. Net assessments of current family finances turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels fell across all age and income groups based on the six-month moving average. Toluna conducts the online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with preliminary results for September closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index release is scheduled for October 27.